Combat Edge Intelligence

John Hathaway vs John Maguire

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-3-0Record26-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'9"
75,5"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
London ShootfightersTeamTsunami Gym

What's at stake

John Hathaway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — John Maguire carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

John HathawayNow 1639
If they win+12→ 1651
If they lose-20→ 1619
John MaguireNow 1559
If they win+15→ 1574
If they lose-9→ 1550

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1623 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
1.41
40%
Strike accuracy
42%
1.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.44
62%
Strike defense
65%
2.61
Takedown avg.
2.80
44%
Takedown accuracy
46%
61%
Takedown defense
78%
0.87
Submission avg.
1.08

Trajectory

John HathawayJohn Maguire
1550160016502017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

6 (33%)
KO/TKO
3 (12%)
3 (17%)
Submission
16 (62%)
9 (50%)
Decision
7 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

John Hathaway75%
John Maguire 25%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes John Hathaway a 75% favorite over John Maguire in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

John Hathaway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1639 to 1559, a 80-point edge.

John Maguire enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

John Hathaway finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, John Maguire 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.