John Hathaway vs Rick Story
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-3-0Record21-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'10"
75,5"Reach40,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
London ShootfightersTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Rick Story is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — John Hathaway carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1661
If they lose-11→ 1629
If they win+9→ 1753
If they lose-15→ 1729
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1625 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
John HathawayRick Story
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rick Story58%
John Hathaway 42%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Rick Story a 58% favorite over John Hathaway in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Rick Story holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1640, a 104-point edge.
John Hathaway finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Rick Story 43%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.