John Howard vs Lorenz Larkin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-19-1Record27-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'11"
40,0"Reach73"
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
Wai Kru MMATeamMillennia MMA
What's at stake
Lorenz Larkin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — John Howard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1624
If they lose-7→ 1600
If they win+7→ 1773
If they lose-17→ 1749
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
John HowardLorenz Larkin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lorenz Larkin83%
John Howard 17%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Lorenz Larkin a 83% favorite over John Howard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Lorenz Larkin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1607, a 159-point edge.
John Howard enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Lorenz Larkin enters on a 2-fight win streak.
John Howard finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Lorenz Larkin 56%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.