John Howard vs Thiago Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-19-1Record23-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'10"
40,0"Reach70,0"
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
Wai Kru MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
John Howard is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1618
If they lose-13→ 1594
If they win+13→ 1585
If they lose-11→ 1561
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
John HowardThiago Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
John Howard58%
Thiago Alves 42%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes John Howard a 58% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
John Howard holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1607 to 1572, a 35-point edge.
John Howard enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
John Howard finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.