John Kolosci vs Matt Arroyo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-9-0Record3-3-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gilbert Grappling· 1558 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamGracie Tampa South
What's at stake
Matt Arroyo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — John Kolosci carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1534
If they lose-15→ 1502
If they win+23→ 1561
If they lose-25→ 1513
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1540 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
John KolosciMatt Arroyo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Arroyo55%
John Kolosci 45%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Arroyo a 55% favorite over John Kolosci in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Matt Arroyo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1538 to 1517, a 21-point edge.
John Kolosci finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Matt Arroyo 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.