Combat Edge Intelligence

John Maguire vs Justin Edwards

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-13-0Record10-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
169 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tsunami GymTeamTeam Jorge Gurgel

What's at stake

Justin Edwards is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — John Maguire carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

John MaguireNow 1559
If they win+13→ 1572
If they lose-11→ 1548
Justin EdwardsNow 1577
If they win+15→ 1592
If they lose-17→ 1560

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1520 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.41
Sig. strikes / min
2.68
42%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.32
65%
Strike defense
51%
2.80
Takedown avg.
2.14
46%
Takedown accuracy
27%
78%
Takedown defense
27%
1.08
Submission avg.
0.97

Trajectory

John MaguireJustin Edwards
15501600201720182019

Win method breakdown

3 (12%)
KO/TKO
1 (10%)
16 (62%)
Submission
8 (80%)
7 (27%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Justin Edwards57%
John Maguire 43%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Justin Edwards a 57% favorite over John Maguire in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Justin Edwards holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1577 to 1559, a 18-point edge.

John Maguire enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

John Maguire finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Justin Edwards 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.