Combat Edge Intelligence

John Maguire vs Matthew Riddle

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-13-0Record0-0-0
WelterweightDivisionTBD
5'9"HeightTBD
TBDReachTBD
169 lbsWeightTBD
Tsunami GymTeamTBD

What's at stake

Matthew Riddle is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — John Maguire carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

John MaguireNow 1559
If they win+13→ 1572
If they lose-11→ 1548
Matthew RiddleNow 1583
If they win+22→ 1605
If they lose-26→ 1557

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1520 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1592 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.41
Sig. strikes / min
3.01
42%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.74
65%
Strike defense
55%
2.80
Takedown avg.
3.51
46%
Takedown accuracy
50%
78%
Takedown defense
89%
1.08
Submission avg.
0.54

Trajectory

John MaguireMatthew Riddle
15501600201120122013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

3 (12%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
16 (62%)
Submission
0 (0%)
7 (27%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Matthew Riddle66%
John Maguire 34%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Matthew Riddle a 66% favorite over John Maguire in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Matthew Riddle holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1583 to 1559, a 24-point edge.

John Maguire enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Matthew Riddle enters on a 2-fight win streak.

John Maguire finishes 73% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.