John Maguire vs Mitch Clarke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-13-0Record11-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach73,0"
169 lbsWeight154 lbs
Tsunami GymTeam
What's at stake
Mitch Clarke is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — John Maguire carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1572
If they lose-11→ 1548
If they win+14→ 1613
If they lose-18→ 1581
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
John MaguireMitch Clarke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mitch Clarke71%
John Maguire 29%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Mitch Clarke a 71% favorite over John Maguire in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Mitch Clarke holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1599 to 1559, a 40-point edge.
John Maguire enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mitch Clarke enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
John Maguire finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Mitch Clarke 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.