Combat Edge Intelligence

John Makdessi vs Mehdi Baghdad

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

18-9-0Record12-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'1"
68"Reach40,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tristar GymTeamBlack House

What's at stake

John Makdessi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Mehdi Baghdad carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

John MakdessiNow 1646
If they win+13→ 1659
If they lose-19→ 1627
Mehdi BaghdadNow 1585
If they win+19→ 1604
If they lose-13→ 1572

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1647 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.52
Sig. strikes / min
3.13
50%
Strike accuracy
31%
4.15
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.56
68%
Strike defense
46%
0
Takedown avg.
0
0%
Takedown accuracy
0%
86%
Takedown defense
33%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

John MakdessiMehdi Baghdad
160016502020202120222023

Win method breakdown

9 (50%)
KO/TKO
8 (67%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (25%)
9 (50%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

John Makdessi68%
Mehdi Baghdad 32%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes John Makdessi a 68% favorite over Mehdi Baghdad in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

John Makdessi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1646 to 1585, a 61-point edge.

John Makdessi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

John Makdessi finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Mehdi Baghdad 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.