John Marsh vs Mike Van Arsdale
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-7-0Record8-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
222 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team Neutral GroundsTeamTBD
What's at stake
Mike Van Arsdale is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — John Marsh carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1536
If they lose-14→ 1504
If they win+14→ 1574
If they lose-18→ 1542
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
John MarshMike Van Arsdale
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mike Van Arsdale62%
John Marsh 38%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Mike Van Arsdale a 62% favorite over John Marsh in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Mike Van Arsdale holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1560 to 1518, a 42-point edge.
John Marsh enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mike Van Arsdale enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
John Marsh finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Mike Van Arsdale 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.