John Marsh vs Nicolaj Wagner
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-7-0Record5-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
TBDReach-
222 lbsWeight249 lbs
Team Neutral GroundsTeam
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1534
If they lose-16→ 1502
If they win+23→ 1550
If they lose-25→ 1502
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1489 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
John MarshNicolaj Wagner
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
John Marsh56%
Nicolaj Wagner 44%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes John Marsh a 56% favorite over Nicolaj Wagner in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nicolaj Wagner's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1518 vs 1527), separated by just 9 points.
John Marsh enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
John Marsh finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Nicolaj Wagner 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.