Combat Edge Intelligence

John Moraga vs Justin Scoggins

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-7-0Record15-7-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'7"
66,0"Reach66,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Arizona Combat SportsTeamRevolution Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

John Moraga is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Justin Scoggins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

John MoragaNow 1700
If they win+9→ 1709
If they lose-15→ 1685
Justin ScogginsNow 1619
If they win+20→ 1639
If they lose-12→ 1607

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1681 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.57
Sig. strikes / min
3.56
44%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.16
56%
Strike defense
56%
0.62
Takedown avg.
3.42
23%
Takedown accuracy
64%
45%
Takedown defense
83%
1.07
Submission avg.
0.45

Trajectory

John MoragaJustin Scoggins
16001650170020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (16%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
8 (42%)
Submission
2 (13%)
8 (42%)
Decision
6 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

John Moraga72%
Justin Scoggins 28%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes John Moraga a 72% favorite over Justin Scoggins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

John Moraga holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1700 to 1619, a 81-point edge.

John Moraga finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Justin Scoggins 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.