Combat Edge Intelligence

John Moraga vs Matheus Nicolau

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-7-0Record19-5-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
66,0"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Arizona Combat SportsTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

John Moraga is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matheus Nicolau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

John MoragaNow 1700
If they win+11→ 1711
If they lose-13→ 1687
Matheus NicolauNow 1662
If they win+18→ 1680
If they lose-14→ 1648

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1681 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.57
Sig. strikes / min
3.31
44%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.98
56%
Strike defense
66%
0.62
Takedown avg.
1.22
23%
Takedown accuracy
43%
45%
Takedown defense
90%
1.07
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

John MoragaMatheus Nicolau
1650170020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (16%)
KO/TKO
5 (26%)
8 (42%)
Submission
5 (26%)
8 (42%)
Decision
9 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

John Moraga64%
Matheus Nicolau 36%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes John Moraga a 64% favorite over Matheus Nicolau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

John Moraga holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1700 to 1662, a 38-point edge.

Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

John Moraga finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Nicolau 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.