Combat Edge Intelligence

John Moraga vs Willie Gates

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-7-0Record12-13-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
66,0"Reach39,0"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Arizona Combat SportsTeamPinnacle MMA

What's at stake

John Moraga is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Willie Gates carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

John MoragaNow 1700
If they win+5→ 1705
If they lose-19→ 1681
Willie GatesNow 1466
If they win+19→ 1485
If they lose-5→ 1461

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1681 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.57
Sig. strikes / min
1.80
44%
Strike accuracy
39%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.28
56%
Strike defense
39%
0.62
Takedown avg.
0
23%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
45%
Takedown defense
68%
1.07
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

John MoragaWillie Gates
1500160017002017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

3 (16%)
KO/TKO
5 (42%)
8 (42%)
Submission
4 (33%)
8 (42%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

John Moraga83%
Willie Gates 17%Elo baseline: 79%

The Combat Edge model makes John Moraga a 83% favorite over Willie Gates in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (79%).

John Moraga holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1700 to 1466, a 234-point edge.

Willie Gates enters on a 9-fight loss streak.

John Moraga finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Willie Gates 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.