John Polakowski vs Ricardo Arreola
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-2-0Record10-13-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'6"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
The PitTeamInvictus Fight System
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1500
If they lose-24→ 1452
If they win+16→ 1493
If they lose-16→ 1461
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1507 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
John PolakowskiRicardo Arreola
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
John Polakowski52%
Ricardo Arreola 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes John Polakowski a 52% favorite over Ricardo Arreola in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ricardo Arreola's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1476 vs 1477), separated by just 1 points.
John Polakowski enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ricardo Arreola enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ricardo Arreola 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.