John Renken vs Marcio Alexandre Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-28-4Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
182 lbsWeight185 lbs
USCAATeamAstra Fight Team
What's at stake
Marcio Alexandre Junior is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — John Renken carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1443
If they lose-11→ 1419
If they win+21→ 1488
If they lose-27→ 1440
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1541 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
John RenkenMarcio Alexandre Junior
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcio Alexandre Junior64%
John Renken 36%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Alexandre Junior a 64% favorite over John Renken in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Marcio Alexandre Junior holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1467 to 1430, a 37-point edge.
John Renken enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
John Renken finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Marcio Alexandre Junior 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.