John Renken vs Marcio Alexandre Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-28-4Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
182 lbsWeight185 lbs
USCAATeamAstra Fight Team· 1581 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1442
If they lose-12→ 1418
If they win+24→ 1460
If they lose-24→ 1412
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1541 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
John RenkenMarcio Alexandre Junior
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcio Alexandre Junior62%
John Renken 38%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Alexandre Junior a 62% favorite over John Renken in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1430 vs 1436), separated by just 6 points.
John Renken enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
John Renken finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Marcio Alexandre Junior 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.