Combat Edge Intelligence

John Teixeira vs Renan Barão

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Renan Barão
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Renan Barão

“The Baron”

34-10-0BantamweightGFL

1598Solid

Tale of the tape

27-9-2Record34-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
TBDReach70"
146 lbsWeight135 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamPitbull Brothers· 1624 avg Elo · 6 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

John TeixeiraNow 1599
If they win+12→ 1611
If they lose-12→ 1587
Renan BarãoNow 1598
If they win+16→ 1614
If they lose-16→ 1582

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.36
Sig. strikes / min
3.78
35%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.90
63%
Strike defense
58%
1
Takedown avg.
1.49
27%
Takedown accuracy
42%
71%
Takedown defense
91%
0.67
Submission avg.
0.54

Trajectory

John TeixeiraRenan Barão
16001650202320242025

Win method breakdown

8 (30%)
KO/TKO
8 (24%)
10 (37%)
Submission
15 (44%)
9 (33%)
Decision
11 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Renan Barão58%
John Teixeira 42%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Renan Barão a 58% favorite over John Teixeira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Teixeira's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1599 vs 1598), separated by just 1 points.

John Teixeira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Renan Barão enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

John Teixeira finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Renan Barão 68%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.