Combat Edge Intelligence

John Teixeira vs Tristan Connelly

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

27-9-2Record14-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'11"
TBDReach68"
146 lbsWeight145 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamRyan's MMA - Checkmat Vancouver

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

John TeixeiraNow 1599
If they win+12→ 1611
If they lose-12→ 1587
Tristan ConnellyNow 1598
If they win+16→ 1614
If they lose-16→ 1582

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.36
Sig. strikes / min
3.31
35%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.96
63%
Strike defense
51%
1
Takedown avg.
0.33
27%
Takedown accuracy
14%
71%
Takedown defense
60%
0.67
Submission avg.
0.33

Trajectory

John TeixeiraTristan Connelly
160016502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

8 (30%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
10 (37%)
Submission
9 (64%)
9 (33%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Tristan Connelly52%
John Teixeira 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tristan Connelly a 52% favorite over John Teixeira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Teixeira's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1599 vs 1598), separated by just 1 points.

John Teixeira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Tristan Connelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

John Teixeira finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Tristan Connelly 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.