Johnny Case vs Justin Wilcox
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-10-1Record14-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'6"
72,5"ReachTBD
159 lbsWeight155 lbs
MMA LabTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1645
If they lose-12→ 1621
If they win+16→ 1648
If they lose-16→ 1616
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1624 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Johnny CaseJustin Wilcox
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Johnny Case70%
Justin Wilcox 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Johnny Case a 70% favorite over Justin Wilcox in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1633 vs 1632), separated by just 1 points.
Johnny Case finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Justin Wilcox 29%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.