Johnny Case vs Lucas Brennan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-10-1Record11-3-0
WelterweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'11"
72,5"Reach71"
159 lbsWeight146 lbs
MMA LabTeamNext Generation MMA Frisco
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1652
If they lose-12→ 1628
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1617 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Johnny CaseLucas Brennan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Johnny Case53%
Lucas Brennan 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Johnny Case a 53% favorite over Lucas Brennan in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lucas Brennan's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1640 vs 1641), separated by just 1 points.
Johnny Case finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Brennan 91%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.