Combat Edge Intelligence

Johnny Case vs Yan Cabral

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Johnny Case
us

Johnny Case

“Hollywood”

30-10-1WelterweightRFF

1633Solid

Tale of the tape

30-10-1Record15-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
72,5"Reach73,0"
159 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA LabTeamAranha Barcelona BJJ

What's at stake

Yan Cabral is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Johnny Case carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Johnny CaseNow 1633
If they win+14→ 1647
If they lose-10→ 1623
Yan CabralNow 1698
If they win+13→ 1711
If they lose-19→ 1679

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.95
Sig. strikes / min
2.02
39%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.98
61%
Strike defense
62%
1.70
Takedown avg.
2.89
45%
Takedown accuracy
36%
73%
Takedown defense
38%
0.19
Submission avg.
1.24

Trajectory

Johnny CaseYan Cabral
1650170020252026

Win method breakdown

21 (72%)
KO/TKO
1 (7%)
4 (14%)
Submission
13 (87%)
4 (14%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Yan Cabral57%
Johnny Case 43%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Yan Cabral a 57% favorite over Johnny Case in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Yan Cabral holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1633, a 65-point edge.

Yan Cabral enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Johnny Case finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Yan Cabral 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.