Johnny Eblen vs Kamaru Usman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-1-0Record21-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'0"
74"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top TeamTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1828
If they lose-16→ 1796
If they win+12→ 1822
If they lose-12→ 1798
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1718 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1799 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Johnny EblenKamaru Usman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Johnny Eblen70%
Kamaru Usman 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Johnny Eblen a 70% favorite over Kamaru Usman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1812 vs 1810), separated by just 2 points.
Johnny Eblen enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Johnny Eblen finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Kamaru Usman 48%.
Kamaru Usman carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.