Johnny Santos vs Lucas Cortes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-0-0Record3-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height5'10"
-Reach75"
195 lbsWeight180 lbs
Teixeira MMA & Fitness· 1646 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Johnny Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Lucas Cortes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1561
If they lose-25→ 1513
If they win+25→ 1542
If they lose-23→ 1494
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1556 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Johnny SantosLucas Cortes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Johnny Santos59%
Lucas Cortes 41%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Johnny Santos a 59% favorite over Lucas Cortes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Johnny Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1538 to 1517, a 21-point edge.
Johnny Santos enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Lucas Cortes 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.