Johnny Santos vs Lucas Cortes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
1-0-0Record3-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height5'10"
-Reach75"
195 lbsWeight180 lbs
Teixeira MMA & Fitness· 1638 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Lucas Cortes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Johnny Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+27→ 1533
If they lose-21→ 1485
If they win+21→ 1570
If they lose-27→ 1522
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1560 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Johnny SantosLucas Cortes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Johnny Santos57%
Lucas Cortes 43%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Johnny Santos a 57% favorite over Lucas Cortes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lucas Cortes's way (44%).
Lucas Cortes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1549 to 1506, a 43-point edge.
Lucas Cortes 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.