Combat Edge Intelligence

Johny Hendricks vs Jon Fitch

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-8-0Record32-8-2
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
69,0"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team TakedownTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

Jon Fitch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Johny Hendricks carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Johny HendricksNow 1705
If they win+13→ 1718
If they lose-11→ 1694
Jon FitchNow 1741
If they win+11→ 1752
If they lose-13→ 1728

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.49
Sig. strikes / min
2.64
46%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.99
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.75
53%
Strike defense
54%
3.83
Takedown avg.
3.64
47%
Takedown accuracy
55%
64%
Takedown defense
56%
0.33
Submission avg.
0.88

Trajectory

Johny HendricksJon Fitch
170017501800201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

8 (44%)
KO/TKO
7 (22%)
1 (6%)
Submission
5 (16%)
9 (50%)
Decision
20 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Johny Hendricks and Jon Fitch within a point of even.

Jon Fitch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1705, a 36-point edge.

Johny Hendricks enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Johny Hendricks finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Jon Fitch 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.