Johny Hendricks vs Paulo Costa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record16-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'0"
69,0"Reach72"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team TakedownTeamTeam Borracha
What's at stake
Paulo Costa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Johny Hendricks carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1719
If they lose-10→ 1695
If they win+14→ 1768
If they lose-18→ 1736
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1747 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Johny HendricksPaulo Costa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Costa79%
Johny Hendricks 21%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Costa a 79% favorite over Johny Hendricks in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Paulo Costa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1754 to 1705, a 49-point edge.
Johny Hendricks enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Johny Hendricks finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Costa 81%.
Paulo Costa carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.