Johny Hendricks vs Tim Boetsch
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record21-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'0"
69,0"Reach74,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team TakedownTeamTeam Irish
What's at stake
Johny Hendricks is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Tim Boetsch carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1714
If they lose-15→ 1690
If they win+15→ 1646
If they lose-9→ 1622
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1692 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Johny HendricksTim Boetsch
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Johny Hendricks78%
Tim Boetsch 22%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Johny Hendricks a 78% favorite over Tim Boetsch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Johny Hendricks holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1631, a 74-point edge.
Johny Hendricks enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tim Boetsch enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Johny Hendricks finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Tim Boetsch 76%.
Tim Boetsch carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.