Combat Edge Intelligence

Johny Hendricks vs TJ Waldburger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-8-0Record16-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'11"
69,0"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team TakedownTeamGrapplers Lair Fight Team

What's at stake

Johny Hendricks is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — TJ Waldburger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Johny HendricksNow 1705
If they win+8→ 1713
If they lose-16→ 1689
TJ WaldburgerNow 1592
If they win+21→ 1613
If they lose-11→ 1581

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.49
Sig. strikes / min
2.02
46%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.99
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.39
53%
Strike defense
40%
3.83
Takedown avg.
3.03
47%
Takedown accuracy
46%
64%
Takedown defense
40%
0.33
Submission avg.
4.79

Trajectory

Johny HendricksTJ Waldburger
160017001800201220132014201520162017

Win method breakdown

8 (44%)
KO/TKO
1 (6%)
1 (6%)
Submission
13 (81%)
9 (50%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Johny Hendricks61%
TJ Waldburger 39%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Johny Hendricks a 61% favorite over TJ Waldburger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Johny Hendricks holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1592, a 113-point edge.

Johny Hendricks enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

TJ Waldburger enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Johny Hendricks finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, TJ Waldburger 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.