Combat Edge Intelligence

Joilton Lutterbach vs Jordan Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-9-0Record12-2-1
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
TBDReach41,0"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team PeregrinoTeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Joilton LutterbachNow 1702
If they win+12→ 1714
If they lose-12→ 1690
Jordan JohnsonNow 1703
If they win+16→ 1719
If they lose-16→ 1687

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1629 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0
Sig. strikes / min
3.45
TBD
Strike accuracy
48%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.64
TBD
Strike defense
54%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.25
TBD
Takedown accuracy
42%
TBD
Takedown defense
100%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.18

Trajectory

Joilton LutterbachJordan Johnson
1650170020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

14 (37%)
KO/TKO
2 (17%)
13 (34%)
Submission
4 (33%)
11 (29%)
Decision
6 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Joilton Lutterbach52%
Jordan Johnson 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Joilton Lutterbach a 52% favorite over Jordan Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jordan Johnson's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1702 vs 1703), separated by just 1 points.

Joilton Lutterbach finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Jordan Johnson 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.