Combat Edge Intelligence

Joilton Lutterbach vs Michał Oleksiejczuk

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-9-0Record22-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach74"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team PeregrinoTeamAkademia Sportow Walki Wilanow

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Joilton LutterbachNow 1702
If they win+12→ 1714
If they lose-12→ 1690
Michał OleksiejczukNow 1704
If they win+12→ 1716
If they lose-12→ 1692

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1693 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0
Sig. strikes / min
5.85
TBD
Strike accuracy
53%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.50
TBD
Strike defense
60%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.02
TBD
Takedown accuracy
42%
TBD
Takedown defense
53%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Joilton LutterbachMichał Oleksiejczuk
17002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (37%)
KO/TKO
16 (73%)
13 (34%)
Submission
1 (5%)
11 (29%)
Decision
5 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Michał Oleksiejczuk64%
Joilton Lutterbach 36%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Michał Oleksiejczuk a 64% favorite over Joilton Lutterbach in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1702 vs 1704), separated by just 2 points.

Joilton Lutterbach finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Michał Oleksiejczuk 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.