Joilton Lutterbach vs Rickson Gracie
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-9-0Record11-0-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team PeregrinoTeamRickson Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1714
If they lose-12→ 1690
If they win+24→ 1727
If they lose-24→ 1679
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joilton LutterbachRickson Gracie
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rickson Gracie62%
Joilton Lutterbach 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rickson Gracie a 62% favorite over Joilton Lutterbach in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1702 vs 1703), separated by just 1 points.
Rickson Gracie enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Joilton Lutterbach finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Rickson Gracie 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.