Joji Goto vs Louis Smolka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-9-0Record17-9-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'9"
68"Reach68"
134 lbsWeight135 lbs
Tribe Tokyo MMA· 1627 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamTeam Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1567 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joji GotoLouis Smolka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joji Goto79%
Louis Smolka 21%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joji Goto a 79% favorite over Louis Smolka in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1630), separated by just 0 points.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joji Goto finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Louis Smolka 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.