Jon Fitch vs Joshua Burkman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-8-2Record28-18-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReach39,0"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamThe Pit Elevated Fight Team
What's at stake
Jon Fitch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Joshua Burkman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1750
If they lose-15→ 1726
If they win+15→ 1659
If they lose-9→ 1635
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1673 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jon FitchJoshua Burkman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jon Fitch76%
Joshua Burkman 24%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Jon Fitch a 76% favorite over Joshua Burkman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Jon Fitch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1644, a 97-point edge.
Joshua Burkman enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Jon Fitch finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Joshua Burkman 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.