Jon Fitch vs Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-8-2Record23-9-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight153 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1638 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamMaster Japan
What's at stake
Jon Fitch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Kuniyoshi Hironaka carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1752
If they lose-13→ 1728
If they win+13→ 1723
If they lose-11→ 1699
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1577 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jon FitchKuniyoshi Hironaka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jon Fitch60%
Kuniyoshi Hironaka 40%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Jon Fitch a 60% favorite over Kuniyoshi Hironaka in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Jon Fitch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1710, a 31-point edge.
Jon Fitch finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Kuniyoshi Hironaka 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.