Combat Edge Intelligence

Jon Fitch vs Paulo Thiago

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

32-8-2Record19-11-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamX-Gym

What's at stake

Jon Fitch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Paulo Thiago carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jon FitchNow 1741
If they win+7→ 1748
If they lose-17→ 1724
Paulo ThiagoNow 1595
If they win+17→ 1612
If they lose-7→ 1588

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1673 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.64
Sig. strikes / min
1.71
51%
Strike accuracy
39%
1.75
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.99
54%
Strike defense
64%
3.64
Takedown avg.
1.42
55%
Takedown accuracy
32%
56%
Takedown defense
64%
0.88
Submission avg.
1.21

Trajectory

Jon FitchPaulo Thiago
1600165017001750201820192020

Win method breakdown

7 (22%)
KO/TKO
2 (11%)
5 (16%)
Submission
10 (53%)
20 (63%)
Decision
7 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

Jon Fitch78%
Paulo Thiago 22%Elo baseline: 70%

The Combat Edge model makes Jon Fitch a 78% favorite over Paulo Thiago in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).

Jon Fitch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1595, a 146-point edge.

Jon Fitch finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Thiago 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.