Combat Edge Intelligence

Jon Fitch vs Roan Carneiro

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

32-8-2Record21-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReach74,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta

What's at stake

Jon Fitch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Roan Carneiro carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jon FitchNow 1741
If they win+11→ 1752
If they lose-13→ 1728
Roan CarneiroNow 1700
If they win+13→ 1713
If they lose-11→ 1689

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1673 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.64
Sig. strikes / min
1.46
51%
Strike accuracy
47%
1.75
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.82
54%
Strike defense
63%
3.64
Takedown avg.
3.05
55%
Takedown accuracy
42%
56%
Takedown defense
83%
0.88
Submission avg.
1.45

Trajectory

Jon FitchRoan Carneiro
17001750201820192020

Win method breakdown

7 (22%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
5 (16%)
Submission
9 (43%)
20 (63%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Jon Fitch60%
Roan Carneiro 40%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Jon Fitch a 60% favorite over Roan Carneiro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Jon Fitch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1700, a 41-point edge.

Jon Fitch finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Roan Carneiro 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.