Jon Fitch vs Roan Carneiro
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-8-2Record21-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReach74,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1639 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta
What's at stake
Jon Fitch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Roan Carneiro carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1752
If they lose-13→ 1728
If they win+13→ 1715
If they lose-11→ 1691
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jon FitchRoan Carneiro
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jon Fitch51%
Roan Carneiro 49%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Jon Fitch a 51% favorite over Roan Carneiro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Jon Fitch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1702, a 39-point edge.
Jon Fitch finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Roan Carneiro 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.