Combat Edge Intelligence

Jon Fitch vs Sam Patterson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

32-8-2Record15-3-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'4"
TBDReach78"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamTeam Crossface

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jon FitchNow 1741
If they win+12→ 1753
If they lose-12→ 1729
Sam PattersonNow 1746
If they win+16→ 1762
If they lose-16→ 1730

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.64
Sig. strikes / min
2.62
51%
Strike accuracy
38%
1.75
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
54%
Strike defense
50%
3.64
Takedown avg.
0.82
55%
Takedown accuracy
0%
56%
Takedown defense
33%
0.88
Submission avg.
1.64

Trajectory

Jon FitchSam Patterson
1700175020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (22%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
5 (16%)
Submission
7 (47%)
20 (63%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Sam Patterson73%
Jon Fitch 27%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Sam Patterson a 73% favorite over Jon Fitch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1741 vs 1746), separated by just 5 points.

Jon Fitch finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Sam Patterson 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.