Combat Edge Intelligence

Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

32-8-2Record23-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReach70,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Jon Fitch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jon FitchNow 1741
If they win+7→ 1748
If they lose-17→ 1724
Thiago AlvesNow 1572
If they win+17→ 1589
If they lose-7→ 1565

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1673 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.64
Sig. strikes / min
3.73
51%
Strike accuracy
42%
1.75
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.42
54%
Strike defense
63%
3.64
Takedown avg.
0.71
55%
Takedown accuracy
61%
56%
Takedown defense
63%
0.88
Submission avg.
0.30

Trajectory

Jon FitchThiago Alves
1600165017001750201820192020

Win method breakdown

7 (22%)
KO/TKO
13 (57%)
5 (16%)
Submission
1 (4%)
20 (63%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Jon Fitch81%
Thiago Alves 19%Elo baseline: 73%

The Combat Edge model makes Jon Fitch a 81% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).

Jon Fitch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1572, a 169-point edge.

Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jon Fitch finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.