Jon Jones vs Lyoto Machida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-1-0Record26-12-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'1"
84"Reach74"
248 lbsWeight185 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamAPAM
What's at stake
Jon Jones is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Lyoto Machida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+5→ 1922
If they lose-19→ 1898
If they win+19→ 1704
If they lose-5→ 1680
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1773 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jon JonesLyoto Machida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jon Jones84%
Lyoto Machida 16%Elo baseline: 79%
The Combat Edge model makes Jon Jones a 84% favorite over Lyoto Machida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (79%).
Jon Jones holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1917 to 1685, a 232-point edge.
Jon Jones enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jon Jones finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Lyoto Machida 50%.
Jon Jones carries a 10-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.