Jon Jones vs Matt Hamill
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
28-1-0Record13-8-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
84"ReachTBD
248 lbsWeight205 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamIndependent
What's at stake
Jon Jones is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +3 while a loss costs more — Matt Hamill carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+3→ 1909
If they lose-21→ 1885
If they win+28→ 1582
If they lose-4→ 1550
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1762 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1631 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jon JonesMatt Hamill
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jon Jones86%
Matt Hamill 14%Elo baseline: 88%
The Combat Edge model makes Jon Jones a 86% favorite over Matt Hamill in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (88%).
Jon Jones holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1906 to 1554, a 352-point edge.
Jon Jones enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Matt Hamill enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jon Jones finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hamill 58%.
Jon Jones and Matt Hamill share 1 common opponent: Alexander Gustafsson.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.