Jon Jones vs Rashad Evans
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-1-0Record20-8-1
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height5'11"
84"Reach75"
248 lbsWeight205 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Jon Jones is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Rashad Evans carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+5→ 1921
If they lose-19→ 1897
If they win+19→ 1693
If they lose-5→ 1669
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1773 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1724 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jon JonesRashad Evans
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jon Jones83%
Rashad Evans 17%Elo baseline: 80%
The Combat Edge model makes Jon Jones a 83% favorite over Rashad Evans in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (80%).
Jon Jones holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1916 to 1674, a 242-point edge.
Jon Jones enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Jon Jones finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Rashad Evans 45%.
Jon Jones and Rashad Evans share 2 common opponents: Anthony Smith and Glover Teixeira.
Jon Jones carries a 9-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.