Jon Jones vs Ryan Bader
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-1-0Record31-8-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
84"Reach74,0"
248 lbsWeight232 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamPower MMA Team
What's at stake
Jon Jones is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Ryan Bader carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1926
If they lose-15→ 1902
If they win+15→ 1838
If they lose-9→ 1814
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1773 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1732 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jon JonesRyan Bader
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jon Jones78%
Ryan Bader 22%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Jon Jones a 78% favorite over Ryan Bader in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Jon Jones holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1917 to 1823, a 94-point edge.
Jon Jones enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Jon Jones finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Bader 52%.
Jon Jones carries a 10-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.