Jon Jones vs Stephan Bonnar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-1-0Record15-9-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
84"Reach79"
248 lbsWeight205 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamOne Kick's Gym
What's at stake
Jon Jones is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Stephan Bonnar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+4→ 1921
If they lose-20→ 1897
If they win+27→ 1640
If they lose-5→ 1608
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1773 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jon JonesStephan Bonnar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jon Jones83%
Stephan Bonnar 17%Elo baseline: 85%
The Combat Edge model makes Jon Jones a 83% favorite over Stephan Bonnar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (85%).
Jon Jones holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1917 to 1613, a 304-point edge.
Jon Jones enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Stephan Bonnar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jon Jones finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Stephan Bonnar 67%.
Jon Jones carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.