Jon Kunneman vs Rafael Natal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-1-0Record21-9-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
77.2"Reach76,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659
If they win+12→ 1685
If they lose-12→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1491 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1660 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jon KunnemanRafael Natal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jon Kunneman92%
Rafael Natal 8%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jon Kunneman a 92% favorite over Rafael Natal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1675 vs 1673), separated by just 2 points.
Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jon Kunneman finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Natal 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.