Jon Madsen vs Justin Wren
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record13-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
222 lbsWeight265 lbs
HIT SquadTeamGrudge Training Center
What's at stake
Justin Wren is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Jon Madsen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1640
If they lose-15→ 1608
If they win+15→ 1663
If they lose-17→ 1631
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1492 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jon MadsenJustin Wren
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Wren51%
Jon Madsen 49%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Wren a 51% favorite over Jon Madsen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Justin Wren holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1648 to 1623, a 25-point edge.
Justin Wren enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Jon Madsen finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Justin Wren 77%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.