Combat Edge Intelligence

Jon Madsen vs Karlos Vemola

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Karlos Vemola
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Karlos Vemola

“The Terminator”

37-8-0Light HeavyweightOKMMA

1737Good

Tale of the tape

8-2-0Record37-8-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
222 lbsWeight205 lbs
HIT SquadTeamLondon Shootfighters

What's at stake

Karlos Vemola is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Jon Madsen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jon MadsenNow 1610
If they win+32→ 1642
If they lose-16→ 1594
Karlos VemolaNow 1737
If they win+8→ 1745
If they lose-16→ 1721

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1573 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.46
Sig. strikes / min
1.67
41%
Strike accuracy
44%
1.18
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.13
81%
Strike defense
38%
1.32
Takedown avg.
1.93
71%
Takedown accuracy
26%
70%
Takedown defense
31%
0
Submission avg.
1.66

Trajectory

Jon MadsenKarlos Vemola
16001650170017502015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (50%)
KO/TKO
9 (24%)
0 (0%)
Submission
20 (54%)
4 (50%)
Decision
8 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Karlos Vemola72%
Jon Madsen 28%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Karlos Vemola a 72% favorite over Jon Madsen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Karlos Vemola holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1737 to 1610, a 127-point edge.

Jon Madsen finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Karlos Vemola 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.