Jon Madsen vs Rodrigo Nascimento
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record12-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'4"
TBDReach80"
222 lbsWeight265 lbs
HIT SquadTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1639
If they lose-16→ 1607
If they win+16→ 1637
If they lose-16→ 1605
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jon MadsenRodrigo Nascimento
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rodrigo Nascimento73%
Jon Madsen 27%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rodrigo Nascimento a 73% favorite over Jon Madsen in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jon Madsen's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1623 vs 1621), separated by just 2 points.
Rodrigo Nascimento enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jon Madsen finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Rodrigo Nascimento 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.