Combat Edge Intelligence

Jon Madsen vs Tai Tuivasa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tai Tuivasa
au

Tai Tuivasa

“Bam Bam”

14-10-0HeavyweightUFC

1611Solid

Tale of the tape

8-2-0Record14-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
TBDReach75"
222 lbsWeight265 lbs
HIT SquadTeamLions High Performance Centre

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jon MadsenNow 1610
If they win+24→ 1634
If they lose-24→ 1586
Tai TuivasaNow 1611
If they win+16→ 1627
If they lose-16→ 1595

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1573 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.46
Sig. strikes / min
3.66
41%
Strike accuracy
48%
1.18
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.97
81%
Strike defense
44%
1.32
Takedown avg.
0
71%
Takedown accuracy
0%
70%
Takedown defense
60%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jon MadsenTai Tuivasa
16001650201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (50%)
KO/TKO
13 (93%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
4 (50%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Tai Tuivasa63%
Jon Madsen 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tai Tuivasa a 63% favorite over Jon Madsen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1610 vs 1611), separated by just 1 points.

Tai Tuivasa enters on a 7-fight loss streak.

Jon Madsen finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Tai Tuivasa 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.