Jon Tuck vs Kevin Lee
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-5-0Record20-9-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
73,0"Reach77"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kings MMATeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Kevin Lee is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jon Tuck carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1647
If they lose-12→ 1615
If they win+9→ 1720
If they lose-15→ 1696
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jon TuckKevin Lee
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Lee75%
Jon Tuck 25%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Lee a 75% favorite over Jon Tuck in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Kevin Lee holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1711 to 1627, a 84-point edge.
Jon Tuck finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Lee 60%.
Kevin Lee carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.