Combat Edge Intelligence

Jonatas Novaes vs Yancy Medeiros

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-5-0Record16-9-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach75"
155 lbsWeight165 lbs
Novaes BJJ TeamTeamTeam Hakuilua

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jonatas NovaesNow 1609
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593
Yancy MedeirosNow 1610
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1507 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.36
TBD
Strike accuracy
37%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.67
TBD
Strike defense
47%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.33
TBD
Takedown accuracy
17%
TBD
Takedown defense
74%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.65

Trajectory

Jonatas NovaesYancy Medeiros
160020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
8 (50%)
8 (62%)
Submission
4 (25%)
4 (31%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Jonatas Novaes and Yancy Medeiros within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1609 vs 1610), separated by just 1 points.

Jonatas Novaes enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Jonatas Novaes finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Yancy Medeiros 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.