Combat Edge Intelligence

Jonatas Novaes vs Zaur Gadzhiev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

13-5-0Record4-1-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'1"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Novaes BJJ TeamTeam

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jonatas NovaesNow 1609
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593
Zaur GadzhievNow 1609
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1507 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Jonatas NovaesZaur Gadzhiev
155016002014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
8 (62%)
Submission
3 (75%)
4 (31%)
Decision
1 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Zaur Gadzhiev63%
Jonatas Novaes 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Zaur Gadzhiev a 63% favorite over Jonatas Novaes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jonatas Novaes's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1609 vs 1609), separated by just 0 points.

Jonatas Novaes enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Jonatas Novaes finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Zaur Gadzhiev 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.